Search the Root Cause of Risks!

You probably know this: there is a medicine for every illness! This is probably one of the problems that make our healthcare system so expensive, because this approach focuses on the symptoms and not on the actual root causes of our illnesses. We often make exactly the same mistake with projects when dealing with risks. Here, too, it is not uncommon to treat only obvious potential problems instead of looking for the root causes of the risks. More effort is required here. Do it better! Read on and find out how.

Risks, Problems, Causes – Do You Understand This?

Knowing the difference between risks, problems, issues, impediments, causes and effects is elementary in risk management. Once you know this, the root causes are not far away. With this knowledge, you are well equipped to delve into root causes:

Risks, Problems, Issues and Impediments – What is the Difference?
How to Describe Risks Clearly and Unambiguously

The Cause-Risk-Effect Format to describe Risik

Watch out! Many of the risks identified are often not the real risks, but the effects. The real risks and their causes often lie deeper. You should therefore make an effort to look for the root causes of risks to ensure that you are dealing with the right risks and their causes.

In projects, very often only obvious, potential problems are dealt with instead of looking for the root causes of the risks and dealing with them. This is where Root Cause Analysis, also known as Failure Cause Analysis, comes into play.

Understanding the Risk Precisely

However, before you can start with the root cause analysis, you should first understand the risk in detail and determine whether it actually threatens the defined project scope or your project objectives, i.e. whether the risk is relevant to your project. To help you better understand the risk and the context in which it is located, it is best to use the following six question words:

  1. What do you have … ?
  2. Where is it …?
  3. When was it …?
  4. How did it …?
  5. Who was the …?
  6. Why did they …?

These questions can be applied to the following areas in the event of risks or problems, for example: Processes, tools, training, environment, stakeholders, communication, (company) management, environment, etc.

Finding the Root Causes with the 5 Why Method

The root cause analysis searches for the source of errors, problems or risks and their symptoms. If the root cause is eliminated, this prevents the undesirable event or problem from occurring.

When searching for the root causes of risks or problems or whenever something unexpected happens, root cause analysis with the 5 Why questions can help you.

The 5 Why method was developed in quality management. The focus here was on determining the cause of an error that occurred in a timely manner. With the 5-Why method, the causal relationships that led to the occurrence of an error could be worked out more consistently in order to determine the true cause. As a one-off error or fault usually has a very stringent and straightforward development process, the use of this technique proved to be effective in these cases.

With the 5 Why method, you ask “Why” five times and go down one level at a time until you can no longer answer the question. Five is an arbitrary number. This method results in a linear series of causal relationships and uses the experience of the problem owner to determine the root cause and the corresponding solution.

You can find the root cause by tracing a chain of causes and effects from a known end state back to the actual starting point.
According to the Apollo Principles (see below for details), cause and effect are the same, they only differ in how we perceive them in time.

The effect leads you to the cause when you ask “Why”. Ask “Why” up to five times and you are sure to find the root cause. You can see an example of this in the illustration above.

Here is another everyday example of using the 5 Why method to find the root cause:

Problem: Your car has a flat tire on the way to work.

  1. why do you have a flat tire?
    You drove over nails in your garage.
  2. why were there nails on the garage floor?
    The box of nails on the shelf was wet; the box fell apart, and the nails fell out of the box onto the floor. *
  3. why was the box of nails wet?
    The roof was leaking and it rained heavily last night. (Root cause=leak in the roof)

* if you had stopped looking for the problem here and wiped up the nails, you would have overlooked the root cause of the problem

Critics of the five-whys method say that it is unsuitable for complex events because it ignores the infinite number of causes because our world is not linear. But they say it can be useful for smaller problems that don’t require more than a basic discussion of an event. All I’m saying is that I’m in favor of simple methods that everyone understands and that offer added value, rather than complicated methods that pretend to be accurate.

Other Options for the Root Cause Analysis

In the cause and effect analysis with the Fishbone or Ishikawa diagram, a fishbone-shaped diagram is used to identify potential causes in different categories such as people, processes, equipment and environment. It helps to visualize the relationships between causes and effects and thus supports the identification of the root cause.

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a deductive approach that uses a tree-like diagram to identify the combinations of events or faults that can lead to a particular problem. By visualizing all possible causes, FTA helps to identify the root cause and evaluate its probabilities.

Why is the Root Cause Analysis so Hard?

There is no denying that root cause analysis using the “Five Whys Method” is simple and yet we still struggle with it. However, this is not due to the method, but to our behavior:

  • Many risks and problems are simply poorly and inaccurately described
  • There is no systematic procedure for classifying problems and causes
  • Investigations are terminated prematurely – we quickly move on to the next problem
  • Decisions are based on assumptions or suppositions
  • There is too little detail to get to the root cause.
  • The necessary skills, experience and knowledge are not available to uncover the root causes
  • Lack of organizational will to solve the bigger problems
  • Fear of being blamed
  • We really don’t have time for this, we have bigger problems to solve

Try to do better and invest a little more time to get to the bottom of the risks and problems.

The book “Apollo Root Cause Analysis: Effective Solutions to Everyday Problems, Every Time” by Dean L. Gano was published in 1999. It describes the author’s experience of how problems are solved effectively, as opposed to the ineffective, conventional approach. In this book, he describes his principle-based alternative method, which he calls “Apollo Root Cause Analysis”.

His follow-up work “RealityCharting: Seven Steps to Effective Problem-Solving and Strategies for Personal Success” is freely available as a PDF (Google finds it immediately). It’s worth taking a look at it.

Here You Can Find More Knowledge

Would you like to learn more about how to make your projects more successful with Project Risk Management? My book Project Risk Management – Practical Guide takes you an important step further!

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Posted in Risk Management.